The World Cup 2026 group stage is over, the Round of 32 bracket is set, and the question every football supporter on the planet is asking is the same one it always is at this stage of the tournament: who is actually going to win it?
We have seen 72 group stage matches. We have seen which teams have genuine quality and which ones have been fortunate.
We have seen which players are in form and which ones are coasting. We know the bracket and the paths that each contender must navigate.
Here is our honest assessment of every realistic contender after the group stage, ranked in order of likelihood of them winning.
- FRANCE: THE TEAM TO BEAT
France have been the best team at this World Cup. It is not close.
Nine points from three group games, ten goals scored, and two conceded in matches that was already decided. Kylian Mbappe has four goals and two assists.
Ousmane Dembele has been outstanding alongside him. Michael Olise has added pace and unpredictability from the right. And behind them, the defensive unit of Saliba, Upamecano, Tchouameni and Maignan has been as well-organised and physically dominant as any defensive structure in the tournament.
Their Round of 32 opponent is Sweden, a team that drew with Japan after losing to the Netherlands and qualifying as a third-place team. It is the least threatening possible Round of 32 fixture for any of the genuine contenders.
Their projected path to the final is the most favourable of any major team. They could face Norway in the quarter-finals, a team they already beat in the group stage, and do not meet Argentina until the final itself under the current bracket projection.
The only concern is Didier Deschamps. The France manager stepped away from the squad temporarily following the death of a family member, and the emotional weight of that on a close-knit squad is something no performance metric can capture.
France have responded by winning both remaining group games, which suggests the collective resilience to manage difficult circumstances.
Verdict: Clear favourites. The most complete team, the most in-form individual in Mbappe, and the most favourable bracket path.
- ARGENTINA: THE CHAMPIONS DEFENDING WITH MESSI AT HIS PEAK
Argentina are defending world champions, and Lionel Messi broke the World Cup individual goals record with a hat-trick against Algeria on Matchday 1.
At 39 years old, the Inter Miami forward is performing at a level that defies every conventional understanding of how football careers end.
Nine points from three group games, maximum points, and a squad of extraordinary depth, Julian Alvarez, Lautaro Martinez, Nico Paz, Rodrigo De Paul, give Lionel Scaloni options that most other coaches at this tournament simply do not have.
Their Round of 32 opponent is Cape Verde, which should produce a comfortable victory. Their projected path after that runs through Spain or Austria in the last 16, then potentially Colombia or Ghana in the quarter-finals.
The bracket is slightly less favourable than France’s, they could face Spain earlier than expected if La Roja find their best form, but Argentina’s depth and Messi’s current form make them formidable in any fixture.
Verdict: The second most likely winner. If Messi delivers one more defining tournament performance, Argentina are capable of beating anyone in this field.
- BRAZIL: BUILDING MOMENTUM UNDER ANCELOTTI
Brazil started slowly, a 1-1 draw with Morocco on Matchday 1 raised questions about Carlo Ancelotti’s tactical approach and the team’s ability to control matches without a dominant central midfielder. The 3-0 win over Haiti on Matchday 2 answered some of those questions, but not all of them. However, after their 3-0 win over Scotland, it is now clear that they are building momentum.
What Brazil have in their favour is individual quality that goes beyond almost every other team in the field. Vinicius Junior has been outstanding, scoring in all three group games and consistently threatening with the pace and directness that make him the most dangerous wide forward at this tournament. Matheus Cunha has given Brazil a mobile, creative option through the middle. And Neymar’s return from injury adds a dimension to their attack that no other team can replicate.
Their Round of 32 opponent is Japan in Houston, which should be manageable. Their projected quarter-final against England or Mexico is the match that will truly test their credentials.
Verdict: Third favourites, but with significant upside. If Vinicius and Cunha find the combination that produced the Haiti performance consistently, Brazil become the most dangerous team in the tournament.
- ENGLAND: CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM, REAL CONCERNS
England topped Group L and avoided the more difficult half of the bracket. Harry Kane equalled Gary Lineker’s England World Cup goals record with his brace against Croatia. Jude Bellingham scored. In isolation, those are the numbers of a team in good shape.
The Ghana draw complicates that picture significantly. England dominated possession, 78.9%, the highest by any team that failed to score in World Cup history since 1966, and still could not find a goal.
Thomas Tuchel’s side lack the creative alternatives that Phil Foden and Cole Palmer might have provided, and their left wing question, with Anthony Gordon starting both group games despite limited impact, remains unresolved heading into the knockout rounds.
The return of Saka and Marcus Rashford in their third match against Panama helped, but England still struggled and needed Bellingham to show great form and win them the match.
Their projected path runs through what may not be manageable opponents in the early knockout rounds, as they could face Mexico in the round of 16 and Brazil in the quarterfinals.
Verdict: Genuine contenders with real vulnerabilities. Their ceiling is very high. Their floor, as the Ghana match demonstrated, is lower than it should be given the quality in the squad.
- COLOMBIA: THE TOURNAMENT’S DARK HORSE
Colombia have been the group stage’s most pleasant surprise among the established contenders. Daniel Munoz has been one of the two or three best individual performers of the entire group stage, and the combination of runs from defence with Luis Diaz’s pace and directness has given Colombia an attacking formula that most opponents have not been able to solve.
Their Round of 32 fixture against Ghana is the most balanced and tactically interesting match of the entire bracket. If they win that, which their group stage form suggests they should, they face Switzerland/Algeria in the last 16. A Colombia vs Lionel Messi’s Argentina quarter-final would be one of the tournament’s most anticipated matches.
Verdict: The most likely dark horse winner. Of the teams outside the top three favourites, Colombia have the quality, the form and the bracket to reach the semi-finals.
- GERMANY, SPAIN AND PORTUGAL: THE EUROPEAN ALTERNATIVES
Germany topped Group E and face Paraguay in Boston, a manageable Round of 32 fixture that should give Nagelsmann’s side comfortable passage into the last 16.
Their projected path is the toughest of any European contender, potentially meeting France in the round of 16.
Spain won Group H but were widely described as underwhelming, their 1-0 win over Uruguay was more professional than commanding, and the “endless skeins of harmless passes” criticism from multiple media outlets reflects a team that has yet to perform at the level their individual quality allows.
Lamine Yamal’s return to fitness is the most important factor. If he produces his best form in the knockout rounds, Spain becomes significantly more dangerous.
Portugal has scored six goals in the competition, two from Ronaldo, who scored a brace against Uzbekistan, and Bruno Fernandes has been one of the tournament’s more creative midfielders.
Their Round of 32 opponent Algeria, is dangerous enough to test them, and their projected path to the semi-finals is not straightforward.
OUR WINNER PREDICTION
France
The bracket is favourable. The squad is the deepest in the tournament. Mbappe is in the form of his life. Didier Deschamps’s tactical experience in knockout football is unmatched. And the emotional motivation of a squad that lost the 2022 final on penalties, with many of the same players who were on that losing side now older, more experienced and more determined, gives them a psychological edge that complements their technical superiority.
Argentina are the most likely team to stop them. But France, in this form and with this bracket, are the team to beat.
FAQs
Who is the favourite to win the 2026 World Cup after the group stage?
France are the clear favourites based on their group stage performances, Mbappe’s four goals and two assists, and the most favourable bracket path of any major contender. Argentina are the second favourites with Messi at his historic best.
How many goals has Messi scored at the 2026 World Cup?
6. Messi scored a hat-trick against Algeria on Matchday 1, a brace against Austria on matchday 2 and another goal off the bench against Jordan in the final group game.
How many goals has Mbappe scored at the 2026 World Cup?
Mbappe has scored four goals across France’s group stage matches, with additional two assists, making him one of the tournament’s top scorers.
Can England win the 2026 World Cup?
England are genuine contenders with a favourable bracket and the quality of Kane, Bellingham and Saka available.
However, the Ghana performance raised concerns about their ability to break down organised defences, the exact situation they will face in the knockout rounds against better opponents.
Which team has the best bracket at the 2026 World Cup?
Argentina have the most favourable pathway to the final. They face Cape Verde in the round of 32, Australia/Egypt in the round of 16, Switzerland/Colombia in the quarterfinal, England/Brazil/ Norway/Mexico in the semifinal.
